The labor market health index falls below the equilibrium threshold. The NEI in Q4 2025 signals a cooling of employment conditions in Poland
The main indicator of labor market health in Poland – the National Employment Index (NEI) – dropped to 49 points in the fourth quarter of 2025, falling below the neutral 50-point mark for the first time in a long period. The indicator decreased both quarter-on-quarter (by 1 point) and year-on-year (by 3 points). At the same time, the economy continues to develop stably – according to macroeconomic data, domestic demand in 2025 grew by 4%, total consumption by 3.9%, and investments in fixed assets increased by 4.2%.
These conclusions emerge from the latest report by the Gremi Personal Analytical Center titled "NEI – National Employment Index. The main indicator of the state of the labor market in Poland. Q4 2025". The NEI index is a synthetic indicator analyzing the condition of the labor market through a set of key macroeconomic data and employment market indicators. It covers four main areas: labor availability, labor costs, business sentiment, and economic volatility.
The NEI index drops to 49 points. The labor market enters a cooling phase
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the integrated NEI index reached 49 points, which means a drop below the neutral threshold of 50 points, which in the indicator's methodology separates favorable labor market trends from signals of a downturn. Compared to the third quarter of 2025, the index fell by 1 point, while in year-on-year terms, the decline was 3 points.
The authors of the report emphasize that the observed trend reflects deteriorating sentiment among entrepreneurs and a gradual weakening of employment dynamics. Although the change is not abrupt, it is a significant signal that the labor market is beginning to react to broader economic turbulence and growing uncertainty in the business environment.
"The drop of the NEI below the 50-point mark indicates the labor market's transition from a growth phase to a slight cooling phase. However, we are not talking about a sudden collapse in employment, but rather about growing caution among enterprises in making staffing and investment decisions" - comment analysts from the Gremi Personal Analytical Center.
The economy is growing, but the market reacts with a delay
One of the most interesting conclusions from the report is the clear divergence between the dynamics of the economy and the condition of the labor market. Macroeconomic data for 2025 point to relatively stable economic development, while employment indicators are beginning to signal greater caution among enterprises.
According to the data cited in the analysis, domestic demand in Poland grew by 4% in 2025, compared to 4.5% a year earlier, while total consumption increased by 3.9%, which means a slightly slower pace than in 2024, when it was 4.4%. At the same time, investments proved to be a particularly strong stimulus for the economy – gross fixed capital formation increased by 4.2%, whereas a year earlier a drop of 0.9% was recorded.
From the analysts' point of view, this means that positive macroeconomic data do not always directly translate to the labor market. An increase in investments can boost the pace of economic development in the short term, but it does not necessarily immediately generate new jobs.
"Comparing macroeconomic data with labor market indicators reveals a certain paradox: the economy is developing relatively stably, but companies are not increasing employment at the same pace as before. This indicates growing caution in business and a greater focus on efficiency and productivity" - says Oleg Rudenko, an analyst at the Gremi Personal Analytical Center.
Labor availability: the end of the highly dynamic recruitment period
One of the key elements influencing the level of the NEI index is the labor availability sub-index, which analyzes, among other things, employment dynamics, recruitment activity of enterprises, and the general availability of job offers on the market.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the observed data indicate that the labor market is gradually emerging from a period of highly intensive recruitment expansion characteristic of previous years. Companies are still looking for employees, but recruitment processes are conducted more selectively, and decisions to increase employment are made more cautiously.
This phenomenon is a natural consequence of the economy stabilizing after a period of dynamic changes and the adaptation of corporate strategies to new economic conditions. In many sectors, optimizing labor costs and increasing team productivity are also gaining importance.
Labor costs and wage pressure remain an important factor for companies
The second important component of the index is labor costs, the analysis of which includes wage dynamics and the cost pressure experienced by enterprises.
From the perspective of companies, labor costs remain one of the key factors influencing employment decisions. In recent years, strong wage pressure was the result of a shortage of workers and high demand for labor in many sectors of the economy. In 2025, enterprises are increasingly trying to balance the need to maintain competitive wages with the necessity of preserving financial stability.
According to analysts at the Gremi Personal Analytical Center, cost pressure remains one of the main challenges for business, especially in industries with a high share of labor costs in their operational structure. - Labor costs are still one of the most important elements influencing companies' hiring decisions. In many companies today, we observe a greater focus on organizational efficiency and optimizing employment structures.
Business sentiment: more caution in employment plans
Another component of the NEI index is the business sentiment sub-index, which reflects companies' expectations regarding the future economic situation and employment plans.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the data point to growing caution among entrepreneurs. Although companies are not signaling massive employment cuts, they increasingly point to economic uncertainty and the volatility of the business environment as factors influencing HR strategies.
Enterprises more often decide to maintain their current employment levels rather than dynamically increase them. This stance stems from both economic uncertainty and the need to stabilize operating costs.
The uneven pace of the economy is increasingly affecting the labor market
Although the overall picture of the Polish economy in 2025 remains relatively stable, a detailed analysis of the data reveals clear differences in the pace of development of individual sectors. The investment revival and growing domestic demand support some industries, which continue to maintain a high level of activity and demand for workers. At the same time, other sectors continue to operate in a more demanding economic environment, feeling the effects of global economic volatility and tensions in international markets.
This uneven economic dynamic is increasingly reflected in the situation on the labor market. In some industries, enterprises are still intensively looking for employees and expanding their teams, while in others, companies approach hiring decisions much more cautiously, focusing rather on stabilizing employment and optimizing operating costs.
According to analysts at the Gremi Personal Analytical Center, the drop in the NEI index does not mean a sudden deterioration of the situation on the labor market, but rather a transition to a stabilization phase after a period of highly dynamic employment growth. The labor market in Poland remains relatively resilient to economic fluctuations, but enterprises are increasingly adapting their strategies to a more demanding economic environment.
"The Polish employment market is entering a stage of more balanced development. After years of very high demand for workers, today we are observing a stabilization process in which companies attach greater importance to productivity, competencies, and long-term employment efficiency" - conclude the experts from the Gremi Personal Analytical Center.
About the NEI index
The National Employment Index (NEI) is a proprietary indicator developed by the Gremi Personal Analytical Center, the goal of which is to comprehensively assess the condition of the labor market in Poland. The index is a synthetic measure of the employment situation in the economy and is based on an analysis of a broad set of statistical data and economic indicators.
The NEI is calculated on a scale from 0 to 100 points as a weighted average of a series of indicators describing the functioning of the labor market and the economic environment. Values above 50 points signal favorable trends in the labor market, while levels below this threshold indicate a deterioration in employment conditions.
The index consists of four main analytical components: labor availability, labor costs, business sentiment, and economic volatility.
In total, statistical data from the labor market, macroeconomic indicators, and expert analyses are used to calculate it. Thanks to this, the index allows for a synthetic assessment of both the current condition of the labor market and the direction of its changes in subsequent quarters.
The report is published cyclically by the Gremi Personal Analytical Center and is one of the most comprehensive studies on employment trends in Poland.