The Blackout Threat. How Many Ukrainians Have Already Crossed the Ukrainian-Polish Border – Infographic

Despite Russian bombardments of civilian infrastructure, widespread power outages, and ongoing talk of a total blackout, Ukrainians are not rushing to leave the country.

The analytics centre of the international employment agency Gremi Personal collected and analysed data from the past 42 days on migration flows between 10 October and 21 November 2022. An analysis of daily figures published by the Polish Border Guard (Straż Graniczna) shows no signs of panic among Ukrainians. During the period in question, 996,800 Ukrainian citizens crossed from Ukraine into Poland, while 963,900 returned from Poland to Ukraine. This means the net flow towards Poland was just 32,900 people. In the last week, from 14 to 21 November, no significant migration flows were observed either: 172,800 Ukrainians crossed the Ukrainian-Polish border, while 174,200 crossed in the opposite direction.

"Putin wants to cause panic among Ukrainians, Poles, and Europe as a whole. But Ukrainians are a strong nation – no one flees simply because someone threatens them with weapons. We are keeping a close eye on the situation and do not rule out that things could change with the onset of harder frosts, intensified shelling, and worsening supplies of water, heating, and electricity. But it is already clear that those Ukrainians who have stayed in Ukraine will likely spend the winter at home" – comments Anna Dżobolda, Director of the Recruitment Department at Gremi Personal.

The company is not seeing a mass influx of Ukrainians, but at the same time confirms that demand for work in Poland is growing. There are several reasons for this. First, the government's intention to encourage all working-age Ukrainians to find employment and to discontinue free accommodation for those still living in collective housing. At the same time, many Ukrainians have already learned Polish and are even able to work in their professional fields. The Polish labour market is very flexible – it is easy to find work here, especially in sectors driven by labour migration: manufacturing, construction, transport, services, retail, gastronomy, and all kinds of repair work, including automotive. More and more Ukrainians are also starting their own businesses here.

The latest data from the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) show that an increasing number of Ukrainians are legally employed in Poland – as of 30 September, 422,550 people were in employment and 8,118 were running their own businesses.