More People Are Leaving Ukraine Than Arriving — The Reason

This spring, 73,000 more Ukrainians left Ukraine for Poland than arrived in Ukraine. In total, 840,500 people crossed the border toward Poland, while 767,100 crossed toward Ukraine. In July, the trend reversed: 59,000 more people entered Ukraine from Poland than left for Poland. For reference, that month 1.048 million people traveled to Poland while 1.064 million entered Ukraine. These figures come from data provided by the Polish Border Guard and analyzed by the analytics center of the international employment agency Gremi Personal.

Analysts explain that this dynamic has several causes — Ukrainians who found shelter in European countries return to their temporary homes after the vacation season. This pattern existed even before the full-scale war in Ukraine, when labor migrants came home in the summer and returned to work in Poland in the autumn. The desire to reunite with family is another key factor. Mothers with children living in Europe travel back to Ukraine in summer to be with their partners. According to official data, 59.3% of Ukrainians who left in 2022 were mothers with children.

Additionally, the renewed threat of blackouts has intensified this trend, and based on the border situation in October–November 2022, the number of Ukrainians leaving Ukraine is expected to accelerate through December.

"We genuinely expect the growth in the number of Ukrainians in Poland to be greater than it was last year. During the holiday season, tens of thousands of Ukrainians left Poland at the end of August to prepare their children for school. We are observing the same dynamic now, but to a lesser extent, since many children have gone abroad. In November 2022, more than half of Ukrainian refugees were children (52%). This year there are noticeably fewer, as many have returned to Ukraine, but we are still talking about hundreds of thousands of children living in Europe and North America," says Anna Dzhobołda, Head of Recruitment at Gremi Personal.

Meanwhile, Poland is already gearing up for Christmas and New Year, which marks the start of the seasonal work period. European industry is picking up — sectors that traditionally employ many Ukrainians. According to recruiters, the most popular vacancies, requiring neither language skills nor additional qualifications, are in logistics, e-commerce, souvenir manufacturing, and the food industry. The average monthly salary for unskilled positions is 38–40 thousand hryvnias. And according to Eurostat data, the average working week in Poland is 40.5 hours.

Overall, this year Poland's minimum wage is increasing twice — from January 1 and from July 1.

So in 2024, the minimum wage for employees under employment contracts is:

• from January 1, 2024 – 4,242 zloty (36,353 hryvnias) gross
• from July 1, 2024 – 4,300 zloty (36,850 hryvnias) gross