Will Refugees Return to Ukraine This Year — A Survey of Ukrainians in Poland

On the eve of September 1st, Ukrainians in Poland were surveyed about their plans to return to Ukraine this year. Only 22.2% of respondents intend to go home within the next 3 months, while 35% are planning to stay in Poland for at least a year. 25.6% plan to return as soon as the war is over, and 17% no longer plan to return to Ukraine at all. The survey involved 1,440 citizens, polled by the analytical centre of the international employment agency Gremi Personal.

In particular, UNICEF data confirms the general mood among Ukrainian citizens abroad — around 53% of parents plan to enrol their children in Polish schools, indicating an intention to remain in Poland with their children for at least six months.

"We predict that the majority of Ukrainians will return home as soon as the danger has passed. However, a significant portion of citizens will remain abroad for a number of subjective reasons — loss of housing, low wages, better living conditions, and of course the absence of risk to life" — says Anna Dzhabolda, Director of the Recruitment Department at the international employment agency Gremi Personal.

The expert adds that the most pessimistic forecasts regarding the heating season are pushing Ukrainians to spend the winter in Poland. This decision is driven in part by risk factors — we are all witnessing tragedies as the enemy deliberately targets energy infrastructure. Even Prime Minister Shmyhal warned that this heating season will be the most difficult in history. Furthermore, in some regions of Ukraine people face the risk of being left without heating or water during winter, as well as receiving utility bills that are extremely difficult to pay. While the number of jobs in Ukraine has dropped significantly due to the war, the situation in Poland is the opposite — employer demand for workers is growing, which is also driving up wages.

Analysts at the centre note that the average salary in the manual trades predominantly occupied by Ukrainians in Poland is 28,000–32,000 hryvnias per month (i.e. 3,500–4,000 zloty), which undoubtedly motivates Ukrainians to improve their economic situation outside Ukraine.