After Martial Law Ends, a New Wave of Migration Will Begin. Here Is What the Data Shows

The first wave of emigration in 2022 was forced and rapid. The second - if it happens - will have an entirely different character: voluntary, planned and predominantly male. This is precisely how migration researchers describe the possible scenario, and precisely what will set it apart from everything that has occurred before.

What Sociologists Say

Research conducted by leading sociological groups in 2025-2026 identifies a consistent pattern: the more time passes since the start of the full-scale invasion, the fewer people plan to return. According to the most optimistic estimates, no more than one third of those who left will come back. The pessimistic scenario suggests far fewer.

The key mechanism behind the second wave is family reunification. The majority of those who left in 2022-2023 are women with children who are gradually integrating: finding work, arranging long-term documentation, enrolling children in schools. According to Polish statistics, more than 70% of employed Ukrainians in Poland are currently in official employment. Returning from such a position means starting from scratch.

Once the restrictions on leaving Ukraine are lifted, the most likely scenario is movement in the opposite direction - men travelling to join already-settled families. This is a behavioural pattern documented by demographers in post-conflict societies.

The Numbers That Will Define the Scale

At the start of 2026, around 1.5 million Ukrainian citizens are living in Poland. Approximately 780,000 are officially employed. This is the largest concentration of Ukrainian workers in any single EU country. For comparison: the total number of Ukrainians outside Ukraine is estimated at approximately 5.6 million.

If one third of those currently abroad do not return after martial law ends - and if men join them - the labour markets of host countries will feel this significantly. The Polish market will find itself at the centre of these changes.

What This Means for the Labour Market

The Polish economy has a pronounced dependence on foreign labour, with Ukrainians forming its largest segment.

On the one hand, some of the men arriving to join their families will enter the labour market relatively quickly. This will temporarily increase the supply of labour in certain sectors - primarily manufacturing, logistics and construction, where demand for low and medium-skilled workers remains consistently high.

On the other hand, integrated women - those who have been working here for 3-4 years, speak the language and have built a track record with employers - are unlikely to return even under favourable conditions. Their absence will be felt by employers who have grown accustomed to stable, experienced staff.

The effect will depend on scale and pace. If the arrival of men is gradual and spread over time - the market will absorb it without disruption. If concentrated - there will be a short-term oversupply in certain regions and sectors.

How Gremi Personal Sees It

From our observations, people currently deciding to stay in Poland are guided not by short-term calculations but by long-term ones. What they care about is stability of legal status, official employment and access to social guarantees - not temporary benefits.

Demand for official employment among Ukrainians in Poland is growing steadily. People understand that unofficial work is not a neutral position - it is the absence of grounds for everything else: health insurance, social benefits and long-term residence documents. That is precisely why demand for legal employment with full contribution payments remains consistently high among our clients - even in conditions of uncertainty.

Job vacancies across Poland and Europe, official employment, guidance and support at every stage. To find a vacancy - call: +38 (050) 961-08-16 +48 525-275-003