Wage Growth in Poland Slowest Since 2021 as Labor Market Loses Pay Momentum
In Poland, wage growth is clearly slowing and in the first quarter of 2026 reached its lowest level since 2021. This follows from an analysis of the quarterly NEI (National Employment Index), prepared by the analytical center of the international recruitment company Gremi Personal. The data point to a gradual easing of wage pressure after several years of elevated pay growth.
Wage dynamics at a four-year low - a clear slowdown in growth
According to data based on statistics from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the average salary in the enterprise sector in the first quarter of 2026 was PLN 9,263.5 gross, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. This is the lowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2021.
By comparison, in 2023–2024 wage growth remained at a level of 10-13% per year. This was a period of strong inflationary pressure and fierce competition for workers, when companies were forced to raise pay dynamically to retain staff and attract new employees. That dynamic is now clearly weakening, indicating that the labor market is moving from a phase of intense wage competition to a more balanced cost model.
From competing for workers to controlling costs
A significant shift is now noticeable in human-resources management strategy - away from a model based on rapidly raising wages amid a shortage of workers, toward an approach focused on cost stabilization and greater budget predictability.
As Evgenij Kirichenko, founder of the Gremi Personal Analytical Center, points out, Poland's labor market is gradually emerging from a phase of overheating. Wages are ceasing to serve as the main tool for competing for workers, and companies are increasingly focusing on maintaining profitability and controlling operating costs.
Inflation and the minimum wage as market-stabilizing factors
One of the key factors behind the slowdown in wage growth is the decline in inflationary pressure. At the start of 2025, Poland's CPI stood at 104.9%, while in January and February 2026 it fell to 102.1%. This means a significant reduction in cost pressure in the economy, which automatically reduces the need for aggressive wage increases. At the same time, the relationship between inflation and wage growth remains relatively favorable for workers, as real income continues to rise, albeit more slowly than in previous years.
The minimum-wage policy also plays an important role. Since January 1, 2026, it has increased by 3%, or PLN 140, to PLN 4,806 gross. A year earlier the increase was 10%, which had a much stronger impact on overall wage dynamics in the economy. The current scale of the increase is clearly lower.
Corporate caution and changing employee behavior
The slowdown in wage dynamics is also being driven by economic uncertainty and a more cautious approach by companies to hiring. In many industries, businesses are limiting recruitment or postponing decisions to expand headcount, which reduces competitive pressure in the labor market.
Evgenij Kirichenko points out that employment in the corporate sector is gradually shrinking, which reduces the need to compete for workers through rapid pay increases. At the same time, employees are increasingly inclined to stay in their current jobs, even at the cost of slower wage growth.
Global factors are increasingly affecting the market situation. Escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf region are affecting energy commodity prices, which is reflected in inflation data.
The CPI rose from 2.1% in January and February to 3.0% in March and 3.2% in April 2026. This signals the return of moderate inflationary pressure, which in the coming quarters may once again influence companies' wage decisions.
Strong sectoral variation in wage dynamics
Despite the overall slowdown, the situation varies clearly across sectors. The highest wage growth is recorded in logistics, where average pay rose by 8% to PLN 9,446 gross. This is due to persistently high demand for warehousing services and the development of logistics infrastructure in Poland. In the machinery industry, growth was 6.5%, a level close to the economy-wide average. The sector remains stable, with wage dynamics driven mainly by continued demand for technical workers. In the production of electronics and optical devices, wages rose by 7% to PLN 9,988, while in the production of other transport equipment they rose by 8.5% to PLN 10,300.
In the automotive industry, the average wage rose by 6.3% to PLN 9,982, although this is largely due to workforce optimization and companies' focus on retaining key specialists while reducing operational positions.
In construction, wages rose by 6.8% to PLN 8,654, alongside a decline in employment. Seasonal factors also affect the dynamics, including weaker activity in February and a rebound in March.
The lowest wage growth was recorded in the food industry, where it stood at 4.6%, reaching PLN 7,728, with minimal employment growth. According to the analysis, this may be the result of earlier accelerated hiring and pay increases at the end of 2025.
Outlook: moderate growth amid rising external uncertainty
According to forecasts, by the end of 2026 the Polish labor market will remain in relative balance between employers and employees, although its stability will increasingly depend on external factors such as inflation, energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and the pace of economic slowdown.
In this environment, moderate but steady wage growth of 6-8% per year is expected, with a gradual continued easing of wage pressure in most sectors of the economy.